Saudi Arabia Is Not an Ally

After my last article, some of you wrote in asking if it was true that many of the people arrested in Saudi Arabia were friendly toward Israel. Since I am not a Mossad agent, I can’t answer that for certain. It defintely seems to be case that the US lost a lot of its informants on the inside, if you read any of the links I posted before. However, I say it “seems to be”, because rarely are media reports from the intelligence community actually true, and if so, the whole truth is always ommitted. We can come to 2 conclusions then, when dealing with news reports from US intelligence; either things are completely fine, or things are a lot worse than we could imagine.

So it follows then that, while many pro-western Saudis were arrested, the US either has more informats inside the Saudi Kingdom, or there is a complete blackout for them. Though the subject of Israel’s intelligence has been completely left out of public reports, it’s safe to say that they were affected, since pro-US Saudis are more likely to support pro-Israel policies as well.

Regardless of the case, many of you may have seen this sort of pseudo-journalism within the last year:

  1. Israel Strengthening Ties with Gulf Monarchies
  2. Israel has Secret Ties with Saudi Arabia
  3. Saudi Arabi Joins Israel in Anti-Iran Alliance
  4. More of the same
  5. This article is truly BS, don’t even read.
  6. etc.

Here’s a tip, don’t trust someone who spent more time in a comfy university dorm than actually being in the middle east, about middle eastern politics. No one who experiences the never ending conflict seriously considers the idea of substantial ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Any Arab “cooperation” with Israel is merely an anomaly of a narrow state interest winning against a vast undercurrent of antisemitism. Saudi Arabia is simply not an ally in any sense of the word, and any imagery that suggests this is merely deception for their own gain. Iran could wipe out Israel, and the Sauds would rejoice for a good 10 minutes before launching rockets directly into Iran’s unguarded underbelly.

Which is exactly what the now-powerful crown prince is trying to do. Every report about him indicates that he is willing to take wild risks, and they normally pay off. With the raging civil war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has no interest in fighting Iran by themselves. They do, however, have an interest in Iran creating conflict with Israel. It is my educated guess, based on limited reporting, that rushing such a confrontation is the most logical thing for Saudi Arabia to do, and what they are clearly setting up for. There is no better win-win scenario than for them to see two of their historical enemies fight each other in a prolonged war eventually ending, in their estimation, with the destruction of Hezbollah.

From this point of view, Israel’s answer to all this instability is to simply be decisive, and yet, such a tall request in Israeli politics. War is best avoided, but if war in Lebanon is inevitable, then Israel cannot repeat the mistakes of 1982 and 2006. Any conflict with Lebanon has only one goal: completely destroy Hezbollah. Anything short of this is a failure.

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